MH370 – What I Think Happened After I Saw It.
There are not really many realistic theories gallivanting around about MH370. Only a few of those fit what I saw. I have referred to a few of them in previous posts. Of primary importance is Flight Test Engineer Stewart Stoddart’s theory, that what I witnessed was an engine fire which caused MH370 to be flying much more slowly than the ATSB and IG seem to be considering. His theory, supported over several test flights on a simulator, fitted all the known data, including that from Inmarsat and radar, and put the plane on that 7th arc somewhere near Christmas Island, on a course of waypoints heading to a large empty airport in the NW corner of Australia. The pdf report can be downloaded here: A SIMULATED FLIGHT OF MH-370 #2Stewart worked with a small team, including a graphic artist who illustrated my sighting, after strings of emails discussing everything from the shade and brightness to the stars. Although I don’t remember which stars I could see at the time, I do remember their intensity. It was humid, and probably hazy, which would explain the lack of intensity of the stars, and also the ‘halo’ which I saw around the plane. Also, it is worth noting that the plane was moving, and therefore so was the source of the orange light, which could well have been the reflection of an engine fire. I’m thinking of the effect sparklers used to give at Guy Fawkes, when we’d all write our names in thin air. That would also explain why it resembled a missile when approaching from afar – I was seeing a fire from in front.
I want to share Stewart’s most refined observation window, since that illustrates what I saw and when I saw it:
Also, I will share the smaller scale graphic, which shows a continuation of where I saw that plane go (I find this quite spooky since it fits with two locations where people have found debris on Tomnod, discussed below):
After Stewart published, though, the Inmarsat data calculations were adjusted and the data then didn’t quite fit his theory AFTER the flight passed me. The data still all fits until it passed by me. What I know is that I saw what I saw, and the data fits what I saw. After my sighting, nobody yet knows. Stewart is still reviewing the data, and stated on his own website a few days ago: “Recent simulation flights have clearly indicated that the single-engine portion of the flight as described in the initial thread above must be adjusted. This adjustment is needed because the single-engine configuration maximum true airspeed of 390 knots at 13,000 feet and maximum continuous thrust, can not meet the time and distance requirements of the BTO ping rings. A new route south with new waypoints is being evaluated.” I look forward with eager interest to hear his progress, because it is the ONLY two theory I have seen which fit what I saw AND the Inmarsat data, and therefore is the ONLY two theory which would vindicate the world governments or whoever has the capability of faking satellite data.
There, I’ve said it again. I think the Inmarsat data is, if not fake, at least so redacted and incomplete as to be useless. I have approached many scientists, including Duncan Steel, Bobby Ulich and others, but NONE of them can give me any proof as to why the data is to be believed. I have heard answers ranging from “I trust my Government” to “They are simply too complicated to be made up”, but nothing solid can be found to prove this data is real. Not anywhere.
So without SOLID proof of the satellite data, that leaves me to believe that what I saw was indeed what I had been worried I had seen. That plane was flying at low altitude towards the military convoy we had passed two and three nights previously to this sighting. Marc drew a chart of where we saw those lights (and subsequently what we believe to be an acoustic target buoy), and emailed it to ATSB in early June:
Compare the location of that convoy to the direction in which I saw that glowing orange plane flying off to. On top of that, internet research showed a Chinese flotilla was in the area at the time. A contributor (Lucy Barnes) on Duncan’s Blog sent me this linkto Hafiz Sulaiman’s article on Malaysia Flying Herald. Interestingly, this post was also pulled after the discussions started about it, apparently since the author is a Malaysian aviation enthusiast with a strong loyalty to his government. He published a chart which showed the Chinese Flotilla slap bang in the middle of this area.
So, when I put all the bits I saw together, and add in what I have learnt subsequently, I believe my initial belief was probably the correct one. I believed that this plane was a kamikaze plane, aiming at that military flotilla, and they shot it down. My belief has changed little.
But, I hear you say, there would have been debris if that had been the case. Perhaps. It could have made a controlled landing on the ocean and suck intact, leaving minimal trace. But there IS evidence of debris out there. Several volunteers who have been crowd sourcing over at Tomnod have found images of debris which have been ignored (or at least met by silence) despite constant notification, in public, to the authorities.
Ana Lucia (@lucia_brazil) was the first to contact me with a theory that it went down West of Bandeh Aceh. She contacted me via Twitter to show me an image where she had found debris on Tomnod (the debris images have also been published by her on Twitter):
She also sent me copies of eye witness reports from a Malaysian shopkeeper who saw a plane glowing over the sea in that area (Bandeh Aceh Post) West of Bandeh Aceh. And yes, I know, this report seems to have been pulled as well, now.
But, more recently, Michael Blades (@dewrat81) posted this image to Twitter:
So. In summary. I believe that MH370 was a brilliantly planned and executed attack either on the Chinese or by the Chinese. It fits. After cutting communications on MH370 and evading radar over the Malay Peninsular and up the Malacca Straights, they activated an incendiary device of Lithium Batteries (they also would fit with the colour and glow I saw) then aimed straight at that flotilla. If it was an attack on the Chinese, then to hijack a plane with twenty odd Chinese intelligence workers who were top level communications researchers and aim it at a Chinese flotilla is MASSIVE.
If that is what happened, then of course the world powers want to hide what happened. It would be worth faking satellite data and creating false evidence to cover up that sort of horror, if only to prevent WW3. Don’t forget, ping rings have before been used to successfully locate a missing plane in the case of AF447, so it is an obvious (if genius) technique to use to fake a trail using this principle. And if the West has helped to cover up this mess, then no doubt China owes them a big one, and will start falling into line and playing the Western Game. We’ll see.
Perhaps it wasn’t intended as an attack. Before it’s turn South, MH370 was on an air route usually used for air travel to Iran. Perhaps it was intended as a simple hijack, but something went terribly wrong, like that engine fire, and it turned back to try and make a landing. Having failed, maybe it flew out to sea for safety (whose safety, I can’t imagine, if it was intended as a terrorist attack anyway), and the guys on that flotilla thought it was a missile aiming at them, since all communications had been cut. Either way, we’ll never know.
I do find it intriguing that debris resembling a helicopter has been identified in the area of Mike McKay’s sighting, though, over in the Gulf of Thailand. It makes me wonder if perhaps MH370 was simply an innocent victim of military exercises over on that side of the sea… and its subsequent maneuvering was indeed a heroic attempt by the crew to land the plane safely in Penang, Langkawi, car Nicobar, then Bandeh before aborting and setting a safe flight course over open water before losing consciousness. But that wouldn’t explain the lack of communications.
Even if they find a shard of that plane down in those oil/gas fields off Western Australia, the majority of the world will never believe it was a genuine find. I certainly won’t. It’s East of Bandeh Aceh.
Edit, 20 Oct:
Duncan Steel closed his blog to comments about a month ago, in order to focus on other things in life. Since then, discussion (at least by many of the contributors to the DS blog) has moved to here: http://jeffwise.net
For an almost complete compilation of published reports on the matter, this is a reliable source: http://www.mh370hunt.com/
Edit, 21 Oct:
I need to offer an apology to Victor Iannello. There is a second theory which I forgot to include, which also fits both my sighting and the satellite data. Victor speculates that MH370 landed in Bandeh Aceh, offloaded whatever cargo was of value, and then took off again, fly South to ditch the plane. I initially felt this theory was too far fetched, since it implies that what I saw was a second plane (glowing orange? Why?), but I actually know nothing that would suggest that his theory could not have happened: Scenario with a Landing at Bandeh Aceh.